Central and Eastern Europe climate change impact and vulnerability assessment

Project coordinator
Univerzita Karlova v Praze, Czech Republic.

Partners
Universitaet fuer Bodenkultur Wien — BOKU, Austria; National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria; Cesky Hydrometeorologicky Ustav, Czech Republic; Ustav Fyziky Atmosfery AV CR, Czech Republic; Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut, Denmark; Meteo- France, France; Aristotelio Panepistimio Thessalonikis, Greece; Orszagos Meteorologiai Szolgalat, Hungary; Eotvos Lorand Tudomanyegyetem, Hungary; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy; Institutul Natde Hidrologie si Gospodarire a Apelor, Romania; Administratia Nationala de Meteorologie, Romania; Narodne Lesnicke Centrum, Slovakia; Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule Zuerich, Switzerland

Aim of project
The issue of global change is recognized and taken into account under the UN Framework on Climate Change as having potentially serious consequences for the natural environment and human societies. The overall aim of CECILIA is to assess the impact of climate change at the regional to local scale for the territory of Central, Eastern and Southern Europe, with emphasis on using very high resolution in order to capture the effects of the complex terrain of the region. From the viewpoint of climate scenario production, this goal will be achieved through a strategy of multiple and combined approaches, namely variable resolution climate models and statistical downscaling methodologies. The primary tools, however, will be very high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) run locally for targeted areas.

From the impact viewpoint, the most important sectors for the economies and welfare of individual countries will be selected. The project contains studies of hydrology, water quality, and water management, air quality issues, agriculture, and forestry.

Expected results
The results of the climate change simulations generated within the CECILIA project are expected to improve Europe’s ability to assess the consequences of global climate change at the local scale, and on this basis to assist to formulate more precise response strategies and more scientifically based negotiating positions within UN Framework Climate Convention. They will be available via website (http://www.cecilia-eu.org), published in scientific journals and presented at international conferences as well as at meetings with local end-users. In Poland the results are expected to help in developing the National Ambient Air Management Plan as well as the National Climate Programme.