Method of analysis of operator’s (flight controller, pilot) erroneous decision infl uence on the controlled air traffic safety level

Aim of project
Safety Management Systems (SMS) currently implemented in all transport branches require, among other factors, a determination of the Current Level of Safety (CLS). Current Safety Level is usually defined by the number of fl ight events per time unit (normally one hour of flight) or per one flight. Also, the issue of determination of Target Level of Safety (TLS) is important. Experience (Poland, EU, USA) shows that human errors (flight controller, pilot) are decisive factors in more than 80% of recorded flight events. The purpose of the proposed project is to develop a method of determination of operator’s erroneous decision influence on CLS and TLS for real air traffic conditions.

Multi-state analysis of the erroneous decision-making process in an aircraft equipment failure situation for real fl ight events will be performed for recent years. The so-far performed preliminary analysis of flight events indicates that it is advisable to analyse the structure of the erroneous decision-making process for 15–25 states. However, it is necessary to identify properly the erroneous decision-making process.

The following activities will be performed on some selected representative real events analysed by the National Air Accident Investigation Committee:

Developing Functional Hazard Assessment (FHA) diagrams;

Developing reliability models;

Analytical calculations;
simulation tests for exact reliability models with multi-state components;

Performing evaluation tests on the erroneous decision-making intensity values for different air traffic intensities;

Performing verification of the method models for CLS;

Developing a TLS determination method (by evaluation of the CLS limit values in the analysed erroneous decision-making structures).

Another problem is stochastic evaluation of erroneous decision- making intensity changes. Stochastic research performed by the author shows complete lack of dependence between making erroneous decisions and intensity of air traffi c. Most serious incidents are reported for medium and lower than medium traffic intensity. The proposed subject also includes searching for other relationships in this area.

The so-far analysed examples also indicate a possible evaluation and verification of simulation result correctness by using analytical solutions with the assumption that the analysed processes are Markow-like. Therefore, it is planned to work in close cooperation with experienced pilots and fl ight controllers.

The subject of this project is related to subjects of three Ph.D. theses (including two open Ph.D. programs) conducted by the supervisor of the project. Indirectly related are also two subjects of habilitation dissertations of Warsaw University of Technology Air Transport Engineering Institute.

Polish air traffic management organisations (Polish Air Navigation Services Agency) are also interested in fundamental research on determination of air traffic safety. There is a big chance to continue the work within the area of the applied project.

Expected results
Developing methods of determination of controlled air traffic safety level: Current Level of Safety (CLS) and Target Level of Safety (TLS).