Scientists analyze the development of the COVID-19 pandemic
Photo: pixabay
The challenge was taken up by the international MOCOS (MOdelling COronavirus Spread) interdisciplinary team established by Professor Tyll Kruger of the Wrocław University of Technology. Project participants include the MI2DataLab group headed by dr. hab. inż. Przemysław Biecek, Warsaw University of Technology Professor of the Faculty of Mathematics and Information Science.
The MOCOS team brings together specialists in mathematical modelling, machine learning, data analysis, statistics, probability theory, IT and bioinformatics, infectious diseases and sociology... Originating from Poland, Germany and the Philippines, they come from different backgrounds and are affiliated with different universities.
Such comprehensive knowledge is essential for the group’s work. The researchers develop projections about the development of the pandemic (depending on further reduction in social contacts) and ongoing recommendations for national and regional authorities, as well as regular citizens.
They also prepare analyses. Thanks to their efforts, we can find out about the current R reproduction rate for Poland (which reflects how many people may be infected by a single patient with a confirmed coronavirus infection), see simulations of the impact of testing and app use on curbing the epidemic in our country (using the example of a simulated population of Wrocław); and we can also look at the assessment of the effectiveness of the “Test, Trace, Reduce” strategy.
The work done by the MOCOS team should also be of interest to anyone looking for estimates of the coronavirus threat.
Specialists from the MI2DataLab, headed by Professor Biecek of the WUT, are involved in that particular part of the project. They model the risk factors associated with severe cases of COVID-19 and the risk of death among people with a confirmed infection. The outcome is an individual risk calculator available on https://crs19.pl/. The use of advanced explainable machine learning algorithms makes it possible to determine how our risk depends on age, gender and comorbidities. It also makes it possible to identify especially vulnerable groups.
Data from the individual COVID-19 risk calculator
In order to better model the course of the pandemic, a survey entitled: “Social determinants of attitudes towards the coronavirus pandemic” has been made available on the MOCOS website. The results will help scientists and ultimately also all of us who are struggling with the current situation.
© 1998-2024 Warsaw University of Technology
Pl. Politechniki 1, 00-661 Warsaw, Poland
